When load shedding began in 2005, we made a joke of it. It was amusing that we were braaing for breakfast, making coffee over candles, or leaving work early some days for a lack of power. But, the jokes ran dry sometime during 2019. No longer did Eskom seem amateurish, rather it became clear that they were not going to be fixing the problems.
It was around then that our country began to share a feeling of defeat. Many families and investors left our shores, with the present looking so bleak and the future not much better. Thankfully, there is real hope with alternative sources of power to look to that will help South Africans avoid load shedding. But we have to question, what is our current reality and how did we arrive here?
What to Expect: The Ugly Truth of Load Shedding
Maintenance up until now was ‘electricity at all cost’ for over a decade. This blatantly means that maintenance was delayed. What Eskom did concerning maintenance was much like putting band-aids on a traffic light. They made an effort, but it was still pointless. Short routine maintenance and breakdown maintenance, that’s what has been focused on. But never refurbishment.
This lack of proper maintenance is a primary reason for our harsh power conditions.
Just like your car, a power station needs regular servicing, and sometimes a replacement of parts. If you ignore the reasons for a regular service, you lose your guarantee, and often the car itself. For whatever reason, Eskom has ignored their required servicing, and they continue to do so, which means that the break-downs will continue.
SA’s current situation: We need complete restructuring of the energy sector.
Eskom’s Chief Operating Officer Jan Oberholze spoke with Kieno Kammies on Cape Talk to explain the situation. Oberholze stated that maintenance will move forward over the next 18 months, but he added, as if this was the fine print, that this process will only kick off in a couple of months (three months at least). He explains that Eskom first needs to ensure that they have the spares, the equipment, the people and all the other sources required for the maintenance.
So, every headline that read “18 months” actually meant at least two years (if the t’s and c’s are met).
As unreliable as the actual maintenance has been, Eskom does have a maintenance plan. They will identify problem units, and concentrate initially on the units that will offer maximum return—rightfully, their focus is on the bigger and more productive units. But that doesn’t mean load shedding will entirely stop after “18 months”. That is only the estimated date for these biggest units to be hauled over. Post that initial round of maintenance, load shedding should be happening a little less, but still happening (since they will then focus on the less productive units).
Our true problem lies in the difference between the country’s needs and Eskom’s potential power availability. This difference, between what they can provide and what we need, is what does and will force them to implement load shedding. Because Eskom has to protect the integrity of their systems, and make sure that they never get to the stage where there is a blackout of the entire country, load shedding must happen.
There will still be unplanned maintenance too. While Oberholze has gone on to commit to doing their utmost to inform the public upfront, this will not always be the case (as we’ve already seen). Yet, after these “18 months” that Oberholze has proposed, it’s not that the system will be fixed, but they will have more reliability and be at a place where the majority of the system will be operating better.
Below, you can listen to Eskom’s CEO Jan Oberholze explain this process in more detail.
SABC has also reported in detail on this proposed maintenance plan, and what our expectations as the South African public can be over the next “18 months” (realistically, 21).
How to Prepare: The Less Ugly Truth
Although the next two years hold more load shedding, it’s not all bleak. There are options to weather this period. We’ve got so many apps to help us manage the load shedding set schedules (and emergency times) as well as alternative power solutions that can make a real difference. So, how do you prepare?
Load Shedding Apps & Push Notifications
Will you know when load shedding is coming? These days, it’s likely so. There will still be unplanned blackouts in the future, but even these are now cottoned onto fairly quickly by the host of mobile apps that follow and manage your load shedding schedules.
The first steps in dealing with the next two years of load shedding (if you haven’t done this already):
- Download one of the numerous load shedding available apps, like EskomSePush, MyEskom and Load Shedding Notifier (all available on your app store), to follow and plan for your area’s load shedding schedule. Note that these apps are only as reliable as the schedules that Eskom is publishing.
- Follow posts from your local municipalities on Facebook, Twitter or Instagram pages for emergency black out or maintenance announcements.
- The last ditch effort to stay up to date? Watch TV and listen to the radio. Eskom has promised to roll out the old system of robot alerts on the TV and radio stations, where they will publish warnings of high usage (reminiscent of 2005/6).
Alternative Power Solutions
In a strange realisation, MyBroadband reported that Eskom is currently paying multiple times more for diesel-generated electricity than the cost of employing renewable energy.
Dennis Dykes, chief economist at Nedbank, described the situation as “completely bizarre”. Dykes detailed to Cape Talk that running diesel generators “costs R36 or R37 per kWh versus 40 cents for renewable energy”. As a final thought, he exclaimed, “You can’t make this up.”
Add this bizarre realisation to the fact that we will have no coal left by 2050, and it’s a real wonder why we’re building new power stations and not exploring alternative energy more determinedly.
Our alternative sustainable options are: solar, wind, and hydro. Wind and hydro options are perhaps realistic options for the government and larger organisations, but they are not a realistic option for households or smaller businesses (due to the large infrastructure cost necessary).
That leaves solar and/or battery back-up solutions as the primary solution for residential home owners or small to medium businesses, as it is has a relatively low infrastructure cost (and only a five to seven year return on investment window), can be quickly installed, and has a long life-span (over 20 years). Home owners or small businesses can either rely almost entirely on solar and remove their electricity bill, or heavily minimise their electricity bill by subsidising it with solar power. Investing in alternative power now, rather than waiting for the electricity price to soar (or load shedding to get worse), is a move that could not only offer big cost-savings, but also allow you to operate reliably by offering the control of power back over to you.